Bristol, Wokingham and York to be the first parts of England to go smoke free in mid 2020s
England will not go smoke free until after 2050, according to new research conducted by Frontier Economics that was commissioned by Philip Morris Limited (PML). However, there are stark variations in the predicted rate of decline in different parts of the country, with one in ten areas predicted to still be smoking in 32 years’ time and nearly a quarter (23%) predicted to have stopped before 2030.
The research established the parts of England* forecast to stop smoking soonest – and those predicted to still be smoking after 2050.
• Areas set to go smoke free quickest are Bristol (in 2024), Wokingham and York (both 2026).
• Areas expected to still be smoking beyond 2050 include North Lincolnshire, Derby and Cheshire East.
Local Authority |
2017 Prevalence Rate |
Total % point change (2011-17) |
Last Smoke date |
North Lincolnshire |
20.84% |
-1.33% |
After 2050 |
Derby |
18.91% |
-1.47% |
After 2050 |
Cheshire East |
16.4% |
2.7% |
After 2050 |
Bedford |
16.17% |
-1.41% |
After 2050 |
Central Bedfordshire |
15.84% |
-1.25% |
After 2050 |
North Yorkshire |
15.63% |
-2.07% |
After 2050 |
Hampshire |
14.36% |
-2.5% |
After 2050 |
Shropshire |
14.04% |
-2.08% |
After 2050 |
Bath & North East Somerset |
13.42% |
-1.95% |
After 2050 |
Southampton |
17.38% |
-3.34% |
2049 |
Local Authority |
2017 Prevalence Rate |
Total % point change (2011-17) |
Last Smoke date |
City of Bristol |
11.14% |
-9.95% |
2024 |
Wokingham |
8.13% |
-5.68% |
2026 |
York |
9.01% |
-6.49% |
2026 |
East Riding of Yorkshire |
10.81% |
-6.80% |
2027 |
Blackburn with Darwen |
16.75% |
-10.36% |
2027 |
Portsmouth |
15.17% |
-9.5% |
2027 |
Reading |
13.59% |
-8.4% |
2027 |
Buckinghamshire |
9.17% |
-5.30% |
2028 |
Bournemouth |
13.85% |
-7.95% |
2028 |
Milton Keynes |
13.26% |
-7.27% |
2028 |