Outpacing illicit trade: What collaboration, technology, and intelligence can achieve

Illicit trade is often reduced to percentages and lost revenue, but the consequences are real.

Working with law-enforcement agencies and partners worldwide, I see how illicit cigarettes and other illicit nicotine products endanger consumers, drain public finances, distort competition, fuel organized crime, bypass youth safeguards, and undermine public‑health objectives.

If we want to reduce harm and strengthen institutions, the illicit market must be tackled directly. My main takeaway across regions is clear: Progress depends on sustained public‑private collaboration, state-of-the-art technology, and evidence‑based policymaking and enforcement.

A global problem with tangible local impact 

Let’s focus for a moment on the illicit cigarette problem, as it remains the largest, most pervasive, and most extensively documented segment of the illicit tobacco and nicotine market. Recent research shows the scale of the issue in Latin America and Canada: 77 billion illicit cigarettes consumed in 2025—one in three cigarettes. That’s twice the global average and has resulted in an estimated USD 8.5 billion in lost tax revenue for governments in the region, reducing funding for public services and enforcement while strengthening criminal networks.

These numbers matter because illicit cigarettes sit outside regulation. Consumers face unregulated goods, legitimate businesses lose ground to unfair competition, and governments lose resources. As illegal markets grow, trust in institutions erodes.

When criminal networks adapt, responses must evolve

Illicit trade now operates as a highly adaptive criminal ecosystem—and illicit cigarettes remain one of its most pervasive and profitable segments. Networks exploit regulatory gaps, leverage digital platforms, and move across borders. In many regions, untaxed, counterfeit, and smuggled cigarettes dominate, often originating from a small number of source countries and moving along established routes.

That evolution makes isolated enforcement insufficient. We make sure we have proper visibility across supply chains, rapid product authentication, and timely intelligence—connecting data, technology, and people on the ground.

Using technology responsibly to protect consumers and enforcement 

A basic truth guides me: You can’t fight what you can’t see. Leveraging technology for good, paired with layered product security, enables us to stay ahead of criminal networks by making the illicit trade harder and riskier. Unique identifiers help track legitimate flows, spot diversion, and flag anomalies earlier.

For enforcement, these tools support authentication of seized products, reveal diversion patterns, and strengthen investigations. As illicit sales shift online, analytics and AI can help detect unauthorized sellers and disrupt illegal marketplaces.

Technology isn’t a silver bullet though. It works only when implemented well, continuously improved, and used in close cooperation with enforcement. But when applied responsibly, it is one of our strongest tools.

Why public‑private collaboration makes a real difference

We need a network to fight criminals.

Illicit trade is global, complex, and fast‑moving. Impactful results come when governments, law enforcement agencies, and companies work together, not in parallel. Public‑private collaboration adds scale, expertise, and speed, so each actor can focus on what they do best.

In practice, collaboration means sharing intelligence and expertise, supporting authentication and forensic work, and investing in training. Since 2020, more than 78,000 law enforcement officers worldwide have taken part in trainings supported by Philip Morris International’s businesses (PMI)—helping frontline teams keep pace with changing tactics.

Effective collaboration also builds trust. When partners work together transparently, illicit networks find it harder to exploit gaps between systems and jurisdictions.

Evidence as the foundation for effective policy

Data and research help turn awareness into action—quantifying the scale of illicit goods, spotting trends, and testing the real‑world impact of policy decisions.

Poorly designed or extreme measures can, in turn, expand illegal markets, increase youth access to illicit products, and undermine public health goals. 

Evidence‑based policymaking—grounded in data, impact assessment, and ongoing evaluation—helps avoid these outcomes and keeps enforcement proportionate and effective.

A shared responsibility, and a long‑term commitment

Illicit trade is not a victimless crime. It undermines public security, weakens institutions, and damages confidence in legitimate markets—so addressing it requires long‑term commitment and cross‑border cooperation.

For PMI, illicit trade prevention is a core business responsibility. In my role, that means securing supply chains, protecting consumers, supporting enforcement, and contributing expertise where it can make a measurable difference.

Progress toward a smoke‑free future also depends on strong legal markets, effective enforcement, and innovation used for the right reasons. To achieve our vision of a world without cigarettes, protecting legitimate products and consumers has never been so vital. We must ensure that there are no illegal parties sustaining a black market for cigarettes and other tobacco and nicotine products.

Technology, collaboration, and evidence won’t end the illicit trade overnight—but together they shift the balance. They raise the costs, tighten the net, and reduce the space in which criminal networks can operate, while strengthening the foundations for better public health, security, and economic resilience.