“Last smoke” won’t happen until after 2050, new research predicts

The research also highlights a variety of measures that could accelerate the decline in cigarette smokers. These include increasing the number of smokers using NHS Stop Smoking services and getting more switching to better alternatives like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco.

The new figures are detailed on a website launched by PML - www.lastsmoke.co.uk – which presents ONS data for postcode areas through an interactive tool. It also includes a powerful call to action to encourage communities to go smoke free faster.

The findings of the report include:

• Regional falls in smoking rates from 2011 to 2017 varied from 10% to 1% - with one area, Cheshire East, actually seeing a rise in smoking prevalence in 2017 than six years earlier.
 
• Significant differences in smoking prevalence across England, with 3% of local authorities having a rate of over 20% while 4% have a rate of between 5% and 10%.

• Deprived areas** have a higher prevalence rate of smokers. The three areas with the highest rates of smoking – Kingston upon Hull, Blackpool and North Lincolnshire – have an average rate of 22.1% compared to an average rate of 8.8% among the three lowest, which are Rutland, York and Wokingham.

The Last Smoke website also includes other proposals that could accelerate the end of cigarettes in the country. These include more independent research into smoking alternatives, targeted government campaigns through school and social media to stop smoking in the first place and tackling the trade in illicit cigarettes by taking tougher action against criminal gangs.

Mark MacGregor, UK Corporate Affairs Director of PML, said: “Our business is committed to going smoke free as fast as possible and ultimately stopping selling cigarettes altogether. What this research reveals is the huge variations in the decline in smoking in different parts of the country. We want to play our part in working with local businesses, retailers and councils in the areas with highest smoking rates. It is not going to be easy getting smokers in these areas to stop. One of the keys to success will be ensuring they understand that there are more alternative options than ever that can help them give up cigarettes for good.”

Table 1: Bottom 10 local authorities with latest “last smoke” dates

Local Authority	2017 Prevalence Rate	Total % point change (2011-17)	Last Smoke date
North Lincolnshire	20.84%	-1.33%	After 2050
Derby	18.91%	-1.47%	After 2050
Cheshire East	16.4%	2.7%	After 2050
Bedford	16.17%	-1.41%	After 2050
Central Bedfordshire	15.84%	-1.25%	After 2050
North Yorkshire	15.63%	-2.07%	After 2050
Hampshire	14.36%	-2.5%	After 2050
Shropshire	14.04%	-2.08%	After 2050
Bath & North East Somerset	13.42%	-1.95%	After 2050
Southampton	17.38%	-3.34%	2049

Table 2: Top 10 local authorities with earliest “last smoke” dates

Local Authority	2017 Prevalence Rate	Total % point change (2011-17)	Last Smoke date
City of Bristol	11.14%	-9.95%	2024
Wokingham	8.13%	-5.68%	2026
York	9.01%	-6.49%	2026
East Riding of Yorkshire	10.81%	-6.80%	2027
Blackburn with Darwen	16.75%	-10.36%	2027
Portsmouth	15.17%	-9.5%	2027
Reading	13.59%	-8.4%	2027
Buckinghamshire	9.17%	-5.30%	2028
Bournemouth	13.85%	-7.95%	2028
Milton Keynes	13.26%	-7.27%	2028

Notes to Editors
*Frontier Economics used ONS (2018) prevalence data published at the Local Authority
level to explore current patterns of prevalence and recent trends (2011 – 2017). The ONS data is published at the Lower Tier Local Authority level (England is divided into 326 areas). Due to sample size limitations, Frontier Economics aggregated this data to the Upper Tier Local Authority level (England is divided into 90 areas).

**The English Indices of Deprivation 2015 are based on 37 separate indicators, organised across seven distinct domains of deprivation which are combined, using appropriate weights, to calculate the Index of Multiple Deprivation. The domains cover Income, Employment, Health & Disability, Education, Skills & Training, Crime, Housing and Living Environment.

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