| INTEGRATED REPORT 2019 |
The public health benefit of smoke-free products depends not only on their potential to reduce the risk of smoking-related disease, but also on their actual use as alternatives to cigarettes by adult smokers. For consumers to use them, these alternatives must be accessible. With access we refer to four aspects: improving consumer awareness, acceptability, availability, and affordability of our smoke-free products.
Why it is important to us and our stakeholders
Innovative tobacco and nicotine products that have been scientifically substantiated as less harmful than smoking will realize their maximum potential for population harm reduction only when they are used in lieu of more hazardous tobacco products such as cigarettes. To achieve this aim, they should be globally accessible for smokers who want to continue using tobacco or nicotine products, while minimizing the use by unintended audience like youth and nonusers.
For PMI, developing scientifically substantiated smoke-free products is only the first step. The next is to make them accessible to all men and women currently smoking cigarettes or other combustible products. Our ability to do so successfully depends on various factors beyond our control, in particular government tobacco control policy and regulations. The commercialization of smoke-free products is at the core of our long-term value creation model.
Achieving our aims
It is our long-standing ambition that by 2025 at least 40 million smokers switch to PMI’s smoke-free products and completely stop smoking. This number can be much higher if more regulators make product harm reduction a third pillar of their tobacco public health strategy, in addition to preventing initiation and encouraging cessation. Our vision of a smoke-free future is an inclusive one. Within our global target of 40 million, we are aiming for at least 20 million smokers in non-OECD countries to switch to our smoke-free products. We have made good progress toward these objectives. We estimate that, by the end of 2019, a total of 9.7 million smokers had switched to IQOS and completely stopped smoking cigarettes, among them 3 million smokers in non-OECD countries. In the three years following the announcement of our smoke-free vision in 2016, PMI's smoke-free product shipment volume increased from 7.7 to 60 billion units. We actively accelerated the decline in shipment volume of our combustible tobacco products, which contracted from 845 billion to 732 billion over that time period.
Our aims:
>40m
number of adult smokers globally who switch to PMI smoke-free products by 2025
>20m
number of adult smokers in non-OECD countries who switch to PMI smoke-free products by 2025
>250bn
PMI's smoke-free product shipment volume by 2025
<550bn
PMI's combustible product shipment volume by 2025
In order to succeed in making the world smoke-free, we need to provide all adult smokers with access to PMI’s smoke-free products. By access we mean that:
smokers are aware of the existence and benefits of smoke-free products;
the products are acceptable to the smoker as a viable alternative to cigarettes;
the products are conveniently available for sale to the smoker; and
smoke-free products are affordable to the smoker.
This section of the report elaborates on these four aspects of access. To assess the strength of our ambition, we put it in the context of the latest WHO base case projections.1 Based on these projections, which assume a world without smoke-free products, there would be 138 million smokers buying PMI cigarettes in 2025, at the current company market share. The WHO aims to further reduce smoking prevalence by strengthening measures to prevent smoking initiation and encourage cessation. Its 2025 target in this respect, translated to our consumer base, implies a 16 million reduction, equating to a total of 122 million smokers of PMI combustible products by 2025. Our smoke-free strategy supplements WHO efforts. If we succeed in our ambition to switch at least 40 million smokers to smoke-free products, there will be 82 million people smoking PMI's combustible products by 2025, compared to 138 million in the base case and 122 million as per WHO's target. This means that our aspiration is to reduce smoking more than three times faster than the target set by WHO. To achieve our objective, we are leveraging our resources to enhance awareness, acceptability, availability, and affordability of smoke-free products. Our commercial expenditure ratio is a good overall indicator of our efforts in this regard, showing how much of our total global spend on marketing, consumer engagement, and trade activities is dedicated to smoke-free products. In 2019, 71 percent of PMI’s commercial expenditures related to smoke-free products, far exceeding their share of total net revenues of 18.7 percent. While PMI is doing everything under its control by shifting resources, government policy and regulations play a key role in enabling and facilitating access, as will be described further in this section of the report.
Providing adult smokers access to our smoke-free products is top priority at PMI. In addition to the substantial resources, as explained above, we dedicate the vast majority of management time to the topic, from our entire Company Management team to the management teams in every market where we are commercializing, or plan to commercialize IQOS. Our Chief Operating Officer heads our efforts to roll out smoke-free products across our markets globally. The team led by PMI’s Chief Consumer Officer brings together all consumer-facing experiences across the consumer journey, from trends and insights on acquisition and retention communications, to physical and digital channel strategy. In conjunction, our Commercial team, headed by PMI’s Senior Vice President, Commercial, develops, tests, and deploys the routes to market for smoke-free products. Meanwhile, the team led by our Chief Product Officer continuously enhances and develops PMI smoke-free products, accounting for consumer feedback. Importantly, our Operations team, led by our Senior Vice President, Operations, works to ensure our manufacturing capabilities meet the demand for smoke-free products. Also, our External Affairs team, headed by PMI’s President, External Affairs and General Counsel, is at the forefront of our efforts to advocate for regulation and policies that will ultimately help adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke to change to better alternatives.
This cross-functional work is guided by PMI’s Guidebook for Success (our code of conduct) and overseen by specific internal policies such as those on responsible marketing and sales practices, market research, product development, and external communications and engagement.
Product awareness
The first component of our access strategy is raising awareness of smoke-free products among adult smokers. We want adult smokers to understand the difference and benefits of our smoke-free products in comparison with combustible cigarettes, but also make sure they understand that smoke-free products are addictive and not risk-free. In our awareness-raising efforts we remain cautious to guard against the use by unintended audiences such as never smokers, former smokers, and youth.
Throughout the world, tobacco product marketing is subject to extensive restrictions, including outright bans. The regulatory environment varies substantially across markets, making it more difficult – or almost impossible – in some countries than others to make people who smoke aware of alternatives to cigarettes and how and why they should use them.
Another significant hurdle is consumer confusion and misinformation that exists about the smoke-free category. People need accurate and non-misleading information to be able to make an informed decision. To illustrate the degree of misinformation that may exist, a recent study found that up to 73 percent of U.S. citizens mistakenly believe that nicotine causes cancer.2
To date, based on our post-market studies, we estimate that only 36 percent of adult smokers in the markets where PMI commercializes IQOS are aware of the product’s features and benefits compared with smoking cigarettes. This lack of information arguably presents the biggest hurdle to achieving our smoke-free vision. It is also potentially the easiest and fastest to overcome if and when public health organizations decide to inform, or allow the adult smokers to be informed, about the benefits of smoke-free products.
Our premarket and post-market studies guide all our consumer-facing activities and communications
Product acceptability
Smokers will only stop smoking and switch to better alternatives if these products are acceptable and meet their preferences. An important indicator in this regard is the so-called full-switching rate: the percentage of IQOS users that stopped smoking versus total IQOS users. In 2019, the average full-switching rate for IQOS was 71 percent. The perfect full-switching rate is 100 percent, and this is our ultimate goal as we continue to develop and improve our products.
We have established IQOS adult owner panels in 21 countries, involving about 110,500 participants
Product availability
Whether we can make our smoke-free products available to consumers depends on a number of essentially external factors. We need to understand a country’s regulatory conditions to decide whether it is legally possible and commercially viable to launch the product there. We then build sufficient production capacity, also depending on trade zones and tariff barriers. Lastly, we need to establish the right market organization to commercialize the product, ranging from how we will actually distribute the product up to establishing a full-fledged commercial organization that can implement the extensive consumer interaction described earlier in this section.
As of December 2019, our main smoke-free product, IQOS, was available in 52 markets, either in key cities or nationwide, and we estimate that in total over 120 million adult smokers worldwide could buy IQOS devices and consumables near where they live.
Product affordability
We will only achieve a smoke-free future if all adult smokers who would not quit but like to switch to smoke-free products can afford to do so. Unlike with cigarettes, adult smokers who want to switch to IQOS must first buy an IQOS device. Their retail price ranges from around USD 40 to 115, depending on the model and country, with a geographical average price of the lowest cost IQOS device of USD 44. These high-quality devices have significant production costs to ensure they consistently function within the well-defined specifications that are part of the scientific substantiation package. To address the potential cost barrier for adult smokers who would like to switch, we have implemented various solutions, including initial lending of the device or payment over time, and we have lowered the price of the existing IQOS device versions following the launch of newer versions. We also improved battery performance, thus improving the longevity of the devices. This not only helps to lower the average annual costs for the user, it also improves IQOS' ecological footprint.
We are exploring alternative business models and routes to market
Next steps
Our long-standing aspiration is that by 2025 at least 40 million people will have stopped smoking and switched to our smoke-free products. To achieve this ambitious goal, we will need to work on all four access drivers: awareness, acceptability, availability, and affordability. This in turn requires that we continue to massively shift resources across our company toward smoke-free products.
We have expanded our business transformation metrics introduced three years ago to provide further transparency about the scale and speed at which we are moving. We now also report on the number of stock keeping units (SKUs) that we produce within the cigarette category as well as heated tobacco products. Since announcing our smoke-free vision in 2016, we delisted over 600 cigarette SKUs globally, while significantly broadening our portfolio of heated tobacco units, to over 400 SKUs.
With the planned launch of IQOS VEEV, PMI will enter the e-vapor product category in more countries, providing additional smoke-free options to completely replace cigarettes.
We will continue to do everything within our ability to give all smokers who want to continue using tobacco or nicotine products full access to our smoke-free products. There are many factors outside of our own control. Governments in particular can accelerate the end of smoking. They can play a key role in providing accurate information to smokers about smoke-free products and introducing product standards to ensure that only scientifically substantiated smoke-free products are commercialized. Governments can also provide the right incentives to smokers and producers, through regulation and taxation.
1Projections are based on the WHO Global Report on Trends in Prevalence of Tobacco Use 2000-2025, third edition (December 2019)
4As of year-end 2019, our smoke-free devices and heated tobacco units could be purchased through e-commerce websites in 19 markets. Additionally, e-commerce websites run in 11 markets allowed the online purchase of smoke-free devices only.
5Touchpoints relate to all permanent and temporary retail touchpoints, where IQOS is sold exclusively (boutiques, flagship stores, pop-ups, shop-in-shop, and corners).
This online supplement to our integrated report should be read in conjunction with PMI’s Integrated Report 2019. The information and data presented in this online supplement cover the 2019 calendar year or reflect status at December 31, 2019, worldwide, unless otherwise indicated. Where not specified, data come from PMI estimates. See About this online supplement for more information. Aspirational targets and goals do not constitute financial projections, and achievement of future results is subject to risks, uncertainties and inaccurate assumptions, as outlined in our forward-looking and cautionary statements.
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